Friday, 11 Dec 98

Another day like yesterday will be evidence that this is more of a bear market
than a bull market. As the Wall Street Journal recently pointed out, many of
the economic indicators look worse now than they did in July.

Normally, December through February is a good time to be in stocks, because
in January many companies distribute annual pension, profit sharing, and other
money to employees, who put it right into the stock market. But there's still
plenty of room for a painful decline before all that new money arrives.

My forecast for stocks today is negative, for Treasury bonds positive.
 
 

Thursday, 10 Dec 98

The Tuesday downturn in the stock market signalled that the current rally may not have the
vitality needed for relatively risk-free short-term investing. Given the unanswered question
as to whether the market is in a bull or bear phase (the broad-based NYSE Composite and
Russell 2000 have yet to recover their losses from the July-September downturn), I shifted
out of stocks and into Treasury bonds.

The outlook for today for stocks is further degraded; for bonds the outlook is positive.

Monday, 7 Dec 98

All of my models predict a good day for the stock market on Monday.
The outlook for Treasure Bonds Monday is unfavorable.